My 20-Year Trading Journey – My biggest Learnings, Mistakes, and 5 Go-To Strategies
From 2003 to 2025: Two Decades of Market Lessons I didn’t become a full-time trader overnight. Though I became full-time trader in 2019, my trading journey started way back in 2003–2004. It’s been over 20 years of staring at charts, burning the midnight oil, and riding through market storms. Some years were good; but others felt like falling into a financial disaster. Why I Decided to Share This Story Now Because if my 20 years of pain, mistakes, and breakthroughs can stop you from taking just one random trade, it’s worth it. I’ve been where you are. I’ve gambled. I’ve panicked. But I’ve also learned the hard way—and that learning is what I want to pass on in this article. This blog post is a culmination of those hard-learned lessons and two decades of chart-watching. It’s a guide designed to help you avoid the pitfalls I fell into—and most importantly, to introduce you to high-probability price action patterns that I’ve personally tried and tested over the years. The Early Days: Trading Without a Plan The Lure of Quick Profits: Back in the day, I used to enter trades without a second thought. If it looked exciting, I was in. No chart analysis. No logic. Just pure emotion. And guess what? Sometimes it worked. And that “sometimes” was dangerous—it made me believe I got a holy grail and I was on to something. The Painful Consequences of Random Trades: But randomness catches up. And it caught me big. I’d be up ₹5,000 one day, but down ₹20,000 the next. Why? Because there was no system. No setup. No risk management, Just chaos disguised as confidence. When I reflect on the common thread behind those losing trades, one thing stands out loud and clear: random trading. I didn’t wait for confirmed setups. I chased price. I acted out of impatience. Simply put, I gambled. Turning Point in year 2017: Realizing the Power of Price Action and having a system What Changed in 2017? That’s when I made the shift. I stopped treating the trading like a gambling. I began journaling, studying patterns, analysing what worked—and more importantly, what didn’t. The First Steps Towards Discipline I discovered price action. It was like someone turned on the lights in a dark room. The charts started to speak. And I started to listen… The Role of Historical Charts Saving Every Nifty & Bank Nifty Chart Since 2018 Since 2018, I’ve saved every single Nifty and Bank Nifty chart on 5 minute time frame. Organized day-wise, month-wise, year-wise. This isn’t obsession—it’s dedication. Those charts are the treasure chest of my trading wisdom. I have folders filled with day wise/month wise Nifty and Bank Nifty charts on 5 minute time frame (as you can see in the below image). It’s like my personal trading diary, except it’s all visual. These charts have been my teachers. They’ve helped me study, back test, and identify patterns that work consistently. If you were to open any folder, you’d find charts labelled by date—July 2019, October 2020, and so on—each one telling a story of price action in motion. It’s proof that some patterns work consistently—not 100% of the time, but often enough to build a strategy around. Discovering High-Probability Setups The high-probability patterns I’m about to discuss are not theoretical. They’re not copied from any textbook. They’re based on real setups, and real observations collected over years of screen time. And let me be clear—these patterns are designed specifically for Nifty and Bank Nifty. They won’t necessarily work the same way in commodities or individual stocks. So, without any more delay, let’s get into it. Let me show you the price action patterns that have stood the test of time—so you can stop trading randomly, and start trading with purpose. Strategy 1 – Initial Balance Price Action Pattern: A High-Probability Intraday Trading Setup After nearly two decades of market observation and full-time trading since 2019, I’ve found that one of the most reliable and high-probability setups is based on what traders call the Initial Balance—the price range created during the first hour of market opening. What is Initial Balance (IB)? Initial Balance can tell you if the market is likely to trend or remain range-bound for the day. Initial Balance (IB) refers to the range between the high and low of the first trading hour (In the Indian stock market context, this means tracking the price movement from 9:15 AM to 10:15 AM) Initial Balance High (IBH) = The highest price reached between 9:15 and 10:15 Initial Balance Low (IBL) = The lowest price reached between 9:15 and 10:15 Why Initial Balance Matters in Intraday Trading Here’s why this setup is a game-changer: Market Tends to Stay Sideways most of the time : Studies and personal observations show that 60% to 70% of the time market trades within a range throughout the day. Trending Days are Rare: Only 20% to 30% of trading sessions witness strong trending days. Reversal Points: The boundaries of those Initial Balance range often act as support and resistance zones, providing traders with potential reversal points. This makes the Initial Balance strategy perfect for range-bound intraday sessions(on wide Initial balance days) Step-by-Step Guide to Trading the Initial Balance Setup Let’s break it down with precision and clarity. Step 1: Identify and mark Initial Balance Wait until 10:15 AM after market opens at 9:15 AM. Mark the High and Low of this one-hour range on your chart. These two lines now become zones of interest for the rest of the day. Step 2: Classify the Initial Balance range Wide vs. Narrow Initial Balance A wide IB(initial balance) suggests sideways movement. A narrow IB(Initial balance) indicates possible breakout. Why this matters:On wide IB days, price tends to retest the IB boundaries, creating prime reversal opportunities. On narrow IB days, breakouts from this ranges are more likely. Example: In below image, On 30th January (Nifty), the market opened around 23,176 and the high at 10:15 AM was around 23,301. That’s a